Abstract:
In this paper the authors present some results of seismic hazard prediction of Song Ca - Rao Nay valley according to probabilistic and neo-deterministic approaches. The results have shown that:
- According to the probabilistic approach, the areas of Tinh Gia (Thanh Hoa province); Thanh Chuong, Nam Ñan (Nghe An province); Huong Son (Ha Tinh
province) have the largest ground accelerations with respect to the periods of: 50 years (190 cm/s2), 100 years (220 cm/s2), 200 years (260 cm/s2), 500 years (280 cm/s2), 1,000 years (300cm/s2), 5,000 years (380 cm/s2) and 10,000 years (400 cm/s2).
- Meantime, the neo-deterministic approach for seismic hazard prediction has shown that the areas of Tuong Duong and Hoa Binh (Nghe An province) have the maximum horizontal ground displacement (Dmax) equal to 5÷12 cm, maximum horizontal velocity (Vmax) in the range of 12÷28 cm/s and maximum ground motion (Amax) ranging from 120÷280 cm/s2.
- In the case of missing observation earthquake catalogues, the combination of both probabilistic and neo-deterministic approaches allows us to improve the efficiency of seismic hazard assessment and prediction in the Song Ca - Rao Nay valley.
Keywords:
neo-deterministic approach, probabilistic approach, seismic hazard assessment (SHA), Song Ca - Rao Nay valley.